War With China Not Likely in Next Three Years: Taiwan Intelligence Chief

Taipei and Beijing will not come to blows anytime within the subsequent three years, Taiwan’s chief of intelligence instructed native lawmakers on Wednesday as he confronted questions in regards to the chance of conflict within the close to future.

Chen Ming-tong, director of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, stated China has by no means renounced the usage of drive towards the island since its founding in 1949, however the chance of battle throughout the Taiwan Strait stays “very low.”

“Barring any contingent event, nothing will happen,” stated Chen. “It’s my view that nothing will happen for the remainder of President Tsai Ing-wen’s term.”

The 66-year-old former minister of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council was appointed head of intelligence in a cupboard reshuffle in February. He succeeded Chiu Kuo-cheng—at present Taiwan’s serving protection minister—who has described cross-strait relations because the “most severe” he has skilled in his 4 a long time within the army.

Chen agreed with Chiu’s evaluation of tensions between Taiwan and China, and revealed that Tsai had convened her National Security Council to start with of October after 150 Chinese army plane performed coaching operations within the worldwide airspace southwest of Taiwan—a pointy rise in amount and frequency.

Speaking on the Taiwanese legislature’s Foreign and National Defense Committee, the official described the continued battle between democracy and authoritarianism as leading to deep insecurities in Beijing.

“[China] will need to dominate Asia and replace the United States in order to feel safe,” stated Chen. “A fear of regime change by a color revolution has caused it to become more internally authoritarian and more externally antagonistic. This reflects its insecurities and demonstrates its position trapped inside a security dilemma.”

Taiwan’s bodily location means it will not be capable to keep away from the geopolitical rivalry between China and the U.S., Chen remarked, after an opposition celebration legislature requested how him how the Taiwanese authorities deliberate to guard its folks whereas “standing in the middle of two fighting elephants.”

During the five-hour committee listening to, Chen expressed a confidence in U.S. coverage towards Taiwan and in American deterrence capabilities within the area. The current U.S.-led triple plane service workout routines within the Western Pacific had been “unprecedented,” he stated.

Asked whether or not President Joe Biden and Chinese chief Xi Jinping had a “secret arrangement” relating to the way forward for Taiwan—this after Biden stated he and Xi had agreed to abide by the “Taiwan agreement”—Chen dismissed issues and stated the 2 superpowers had been present process structural modifications of their relationship.

“They say there’s no going back for China-U.S. relations,” the nationwide safety director stated.

He echoed remarks given to the identical committee on Monday by Taiwanese Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu, who, when quizzed on the identical topic, stated: “The U.S. government has assured us that ties with Taiwan will only improve, regardless of changes in China-U.S. relations.”

The Tsai administration stays in common favor among the many Taiwanese public—52.6 p.c approval, in accordance with one current ballot—however opposition leaders concern that the federal government’s lack of dialogue with its Chinese counterpart dangers placing the island beneath extra strain from Beijing.

Taiwanese and Chinese officers haven’t held high-level talks since 2016 as a result of the previous insist on political parity and no preconditions for dialogue, whereas the latter demand that Taipei first settle for its place that Taiwan is a province of China.

Taiwan Intel Official Says War Not Likely
File: Chinese President Xi Jinping. Taipei and Beijing will not come to blows anytime within the subsequent three years, Taiwan’s chief of intelligence instructed native lawmakers on Wednesday.
Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

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