Russia’s Military Losses in Ukraine Are A Gold Mine for US Intelligence

Russian navy gear seized by Ukrainian forces all through an explosive battle poised to enter its third week might show a gold mine for U.S. intelligence trying to get a uncommon have a look at Moscow’s weapons and the encrypted command and management knowledge they include, present and former U.S. navy personnel advised Newsweek.

“The gear is huge,” Mike Jason, a retired U.S. Army colonel who served in Afghanistan, Iraq and Kosovo, advised Newsweek. “It’s like capturing an enigma machine.”

The time period refers back to the cipher system employed by Nazi Germany throughout World War II to masks the Third Reich’s secret communications, a code in the end unraveled by the Allies, constituting a serious intelligence benefit.

Now as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to argue at this time for the “denazification” of Ukraine by way of what he has deemed a “special military operation” decried by a lot of the worldwide neighborhood as an unjustified invasion of the neighboring nation, a chance might exist to eavesdrop on Moscow’s conflict effort.

Should Ukraine get its fingers on such belongings, Jason stated there are “immediate implications” and “long-term implications,” together with those who contain the nation’s international backers.

Among the potential “immediate” impacts could be that Kyiv “can perhaps listen in right now to what is happening, then exploit in real-time,” Jason stated. One of the doable “long-term” results he recognized was that “the equipment can be reverse-engineered, say, sent to a major foreign intelligence exploitation lab, etc.”

Here, Jason stated, even seemingly innocuous gadgets equivalent to radios, if nonetheless intact, may include vital so-called “crypto” data, giving an perception into Russia’s encoded communications.

“And then,” he added, “technology can be developed to jam and/or listen in, etc.”

Given the energetic conflict effort, U.S. navy officers have been reticent in talking publicly in regards to the extent to which intelligence was being shared between Washington and Kyiv. Reached for remark, a Pentagon spokesperson advised Newsweek that “we have nothing to offer, as we do not speak to intelligence assessments.”

But one U.S. cyberwarfare officer, who requested to stay nameless, advised Newsweek that “we have covert folks attempting to acquire hardware all the time.”

And, although no dependable figures as to the extent of Russia’s navy losses to this point have been made public, reviews point out they’ve been comparatively substantial. Unverified footage promoted by official Ukrainian shops has documented Ukrainian captures of the likes of Russian command and management automobiles, a T-72-tank-mounted TOS-1A thermobaric multiple-launch rocket system and plenty of Russian plane, together with the Su-34.

Ukrainian state-owned protection conglomerate Ukroboronprom even claimed Tuesday it will supply sizable rewards for anybody keen to retrieve “stolen combat aviation equipment of the occupiers,” together with as much as $500,000 for a captured navy helicopter and $1 million for a warplane in working situation.

One significantly vital alleged discover for Kyiv was the Pantsir surface-to-air missile system, a number of of which have been stated to have been taken intact by Ukrainian models. Jason stated this is able to probably be “a huge get,” because it’s assumed such a weapon “talks to friendly aircraft to deconflict friend-or-foe” and “would be tied to command and control systems at a high level.”

There is definitely precedent for Ukraine to share captured intelligence and gear with their U.S. companions.

“That is normal practice,” former Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council chief Oleksandr Danylyuk advised Newsweek, noting that Ukraine’s navy and intelligence engaged in such exchanges throughout his time in workplace.

“I cannot tell you what it was, but it was very beneficial,” Danylyuk stated. “We were receiving some equipment in exchange…very high-tech as well,” he added. “This co-operation works. And now we will be benefiting from this even more, because whatever the West learns about Russia will be helpful to us as well.”

Asked by Newsweek what the destiny of such Russian gear was as soon as coming underneath Ukrainian management, a senior Ukrainian protection official who requested to not be named had a easy reply.

“It is recovered and used against the aggressor,” he stated.

A U.S. navy aviator who additionally requested to stay unnamed gave some examples of the advantages of capturing enemy {hardware}.

“Getting actual equipment and manuals also helps with the human dynamic: how easy it is to operate, etc,” the U.S. navy aviator advised Newsweek. “Can any ‘Joe Shmoe’ use this, or does it require a Ph.D. to operate it at the same level as the glossy brochure?”

But this aviator additionally famous that there have been limits to the quantity of helpful data that may very well be extracted from these methods alone within the fashionable period, when a nation like Russia would possible be fast to take motion to keep away from vital channels being intruded on.

“As systems move from analog to digital, the exploitation game changes a bit,” the U.S. navy aviator stated. “The software and source code are the critical items, because you can find zero-day vulnerabilities and build a tool to attack it if/when the time comes.”

As such, the U.S. navy aviator stated that “crypto gear is less important these days because the value is in the keys, and they change all the time.”

But fears of U.S. gear falling into Russia’s fingers possible additionally performed into hesitance to ship extra superior, costly weapons methods to Ukraine, past the easier platforms equivalent to Stinger shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile methods, plenty of which the Russian Defense Ministry claims to have already confiscated. Ukraine’s navy additionally stated its navy sunk its personal flagship final week, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, to keep away from seize by Russia.

Attempts by Washington and Moscow to acquire each other’s gear had been a central theme of the Cold War, and proceed to affect U.S. opposition to allies like Turkey and companions like India buying Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missile system whereas additionally looking for superior U.S. platforms.

Last month, the Pentagon dismissed Russian information reviews that Moscow had recovered a sonar countermeasure system from a U.S. Navy Virginia-class submarine after an encounter with Russian warships within the northern Pacific Ocean, with spokesperson Eric Pahon telling Newsweek on the time that the claims had been “nonsense and disinformation.”

On Thursday, the Pentagon managed to finish an in depth operation to get better an F-35 fighter jet that had crashed earlier this yr into the South China Sea, the place the U.S.’ acknowledged high competitor on the world stage, China, operates extensively, and which it largely claims as its personal territory.

As the conflict in Ukraine drags on, each Kyiv and Moscow declare successes every day. But rampant misinformation and the fog of conflict have obscured efforts to discern the validity of both aspect’s claims.

And regardless of their ongoing hostilities, representatives of Russia and Ukraine have additionally engaged in three rounds of talks hosted by Russian ally Belarus. Among the extra instant subjects of dialogue is the implementation of a ceasefire and humanitarian corridors to permit residents to flee the battle, which threatens to quickly tackle a fair deadlier character as Russian troops push to encircle main cities, together with the capital.

On Monday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov advised Reuters that Moscow would finish the conflict “this moment” ought to Kyiv comply with 4 core calls for: an finish to Ukrainian navy motion, recognition of the independence of the pro-Russia separatist-held Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics within the japanese Donbas area, Russia’s management of the southern Crimean Peninsula annexed in 2014 and an modification to Ukraine’s structure to declare neutrality from navy blocs, ending its bid to affix the U.S.-led NATO alliance.

In an interview with ABC News, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later rejected what he referred to as an “ultimatum” from Russia, however stated his authorities had a “possible solution” to fulfill the situations. To achieve this, nevertheless, he sought a direct line with Putin, who has not expressed any public plans to have interaction one-on-one together with his Ukrainian counterpart.

This article has been up to date to incorporate remark from former Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council chief Oleksandr Danylyuk.