Liz Cheney’s Chances of Beating Hageman With 10 Days to Primary: Polls

Representative Liz Cheney, a Wyoming Republican, goals to fend off a problem from GOP opponent Harriet Hageman, who’s endorsed by former President Donald Trump, however with simply 10 days till the first election, polls present the incumbent Republican in a tough place.

Cheney drew Trump’s anger after she led 9 different House Republicans in voting to question him final yr for inciting his supporters to assault the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. Since then, the congresswoman has been one of many ex-president’s harshest critics, whereas additionally condemning fellow Republicans who proceed to align with him.

Last September, Trump endorsed Hageman, an lawyer and former Republican National Committee (RNC) member, in her bid to unseat Cheney, who has represented Wyoming’s at-large district since 2017. Although the incumbent Republican managed to rake in almost $3 million in marketing campaign contributions throughout the newest fundraising quarter alone, Hageman seems to have a robust benefit, based on latest polls.

Liz Cheney and Harriet Hageman
Polls present GOP Representative Liz Cheney trailing her opponent Harriet Hageman, Above to the left, Cheney presides over a listening to within the Cannon House Office Building on July 21 in Washington, D.C. Above to the correct, Hageman speaks at a rally on June 14 in Jackson, Wyoming.
Win McNamee/Natalie Behring/Getty Images

The newest survey information from Wyoming’s Casper Star-Tribune confirmed Cheney trailing Hageman by a big double-digit margin. The ballot, which was performed with Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy from July 7 to 11, confirmed Hageman backed by 52 p.c of probably Wyoming major voters in comparison with simply 30 p.c who supported Cheney. None of the opposite Republican major candidates obtained greater than 5 p.c and simply 11 p.c of respondents had been undecided.

It included 1,100 respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 p.c.

Another ballot from May carried out by the conservative group Club for Growth, which opposes Cheney’s reelection, confirmed the incumbent trailing Hageman by 30 factors. Hageman had the assist of 56 p.c of Wyoming Republicans and Cheney had the assist of simply 26 p.c.

The survey included 400 probably GOP major voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 p.c.

In January, a small Republican straw ballot confirmed Cheney dropping by a big margin to her Trump-backed challenger. It was held by Wyoming’s GOP State Central Committee and confirmed Hageman supported by 59 out of the 71 members, the Casper Star-Tribune reported on the time. Cheney solely gained six votes whereas different native Republicans garnered some assist as nicely.

Although Cheney was beforehand widespread in Wyoming, Trump persistently seemed to be barely extra widespread, based on election outcomes. In 2020, the GOP congresswoman gained reelection with almost 69 p.c of the vote, whereas Trump gained the state with almost 70 p.c. In 2016, Cheney gained with 64 p.c of the vote in comparison with Trump’s 68 p.c.

Some have instructed that Cheney may see a lift in assist from Democrats switching their social gathering affiliation to assist her. Wyoming presently permits voters to alter their social gathering registration as much as and on Election Day. However, there are 4 occasions as many Republicans in Wyoming as there are Democrats, based on The New York Times. That makes it unlikely that assist from liberals could be sufficient to push her forward of Hageman.

Notably, of the opposite 9 Republicans who voted to question Trump, 4 (Representatives Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Fred Upton of Michigan, Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio and John Katko of New York) selected to not search reelection, two (Representatives Tom Rice of South Carolina and Peter Meijer of Michigan) have misplaced their primaries to Trump-backed challengers, and two (Representatives Dan Newhouse of Washington state and David Valadao of California) will go on to the final election. The votes within the GOP major for Washington state Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler’s seat are nonetheless being counted and it’s too near name.

Leave a Comment